Elite Status Rankings

Ultimate Footy ADP Trend Analysis - Points Based

Saturday, 3rd March 2012

Using a computerised formula Elite Sports News is able to generate a player points Projector for Dream Team Scoring using a series of objective criteria against numerical historical data. Some of the objective criteria are short & long term form, strength of opponent & home/away short & long term form to name a few. These projections are estimated to be at least 20% more accurate than merely relying on season averages. (This is based on our 2011 projected results & the 2011 season averages in testing)

Elite Sports News has put no subjectivety into the rankings of these players. It is purely based on what the projection software thinks.

*The Projection software does not know about injury, pre-season form or role changes. It’s a software program to make sure you never overlook anybody. It has no feelings or bias towards teams or players. Please use it as a research tool to come to your own conclusions, rather than use it as fact.

ADP – Stands for Average Draft Position and is based on where players are being taken over the past 2 weeks of Ultimate Footy Online Drafts.

ESN Rank – This is based on the Elite Sports News Player Projection Software.

1   Dane Swan   M   Collingwood Magpies   $0

2011 Games Played: 21
Season Average: 120.9
Undervalued
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Magpies vs BYE BYE
DT Score 137 162 116 131 104 96 114 94 89 83 125 130 148 101 118 171 155 137 119 125 84
Projected Season Average:

121.00

ADP:

2.00

ESN Rank:

1.00

ADP Undervalued:

1.00


Comments: Swan is a star in both formats of the game. His work rate is exceptional and wins the ball better than anyone in the competition. A walk up Captain, playing for the premiership favourites in 2012. Most are taking Swan or Ablett with first pick, which seems sensible.
79%
 

2   Gary Ablett   M   Gold Coast Suns   $0

2011 Games Played: 20
Season Average: 112.1
Undervalued
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Suns vs BYE BYE
DT Score 96 115 83 81 84 156 90 132 146 135 118 175 23 101 97 118 106 142 96 147
Projected Season Average:

118.30

ADP:

2.70

ESN Rank:

2.00

ADP Undervalued:

0.70


Comments: Its fantastic to see superstars who continue to win a bucket load of the ball in any environment. Ablett was an excellent midfield premium last year, with an interrupted pre-season, a new unknown team, no supporting champion players and a losing team. He makes for a juicy proposition in 2012. Disclaimer: Always expect only 19-20 games with Ablett, but we think he deserves to be drafted with Pick 1-2.
70%
 

3   Scott Pendlebury   M   Collingwood Magpies   $0

2011 Games Played: 22
Season Average: 116.6
Overvalued
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Magpies vs BYE BYE
DT Score 121 141 95 121 170 87 89 103 127 129 104 107 105 107 123 124 141 120 107 94 145 106
Projected Season Average:

114.90

ADP:

3.10

ESN Rank:

5.00

ADP Overvalued:

-1.90


Comments: An elite player of the game. He now probably holds a spot in the top 5 best players in the competition. His consistency is outrageously reliable. He plays for the best team in the competition, and is actually entering 2012 at the peak age window for AFL footballers. He is the consensus 3rd pick off the board, which, perhaps is because of the brand name, but he is an excellent player, as are all in the Top 10.
83%
 

4   Matthew Boyd   M   Western Bulldogs   $0

2011 Games Played: 22
Season Average: 116.2
Undervalued
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Bulldogs vs BYE BYE
DT Score 85 120 125 162 89 134 120 102 119 94 143 70 136 93 119 102 117 126 115 123 108 155
Projected Season Average:

117.70

ADP:

6.10

ESN Rank:

3.00

ADP Undervalued:

3.10


Comments: The best thing about owning a player who Captains his side is that they will never give up! The Western Bulldogs struggled last season, missing out on finals. This didn't slow Boyd down. He was once again a monster! If the Bulldogs sneak back into the top 8 again in 2012 there is no reason to think Boyd will slow down. He has been working hard in pre-season setting the example for all the youngsters. A solid 1st round pick in your team.
81%
 

5   Marc Murphy   M   Carlton Blues   $0

2011 Games Played: 22
Season Average: 111.5
Overvalued
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Blues vs BYE BYE
DT Score 123 129 69 86 126 123 98 121 145 117 128 129 120 97 116 93 118 103 87 105 114 105
Projected Season Average:

108.70

ADP:

6.80

ESN Rank:

11.00

ADP Overvalued:

-4.20


Comments: He is the 2011 consistency king. Nobody in the AFL was a more consistent Dream Team scorer than this man himself. Add on top of that, in 5 seasons he has only missed 1 single game! That’s 109 games out of a possible 110 games. Unbelievable! In 2011 he broke out and became 110+ average superstar. What are you waiting for? With all the headache of injuries, suspensions and underperforming premiums. Here is someone who won't have any of these issues. He will just pump out scores for you. Deserves to be drafted higher, as he might not have as much explosiveness as some of the others, he will play 22 games with a solid Captain score.
84%
 

6   Joel Selwood   M   Geelong Cats   $0

2011 Games Played: 17
Season Average: 109.1
Undervalued
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Cats vs BYE BYE
DT Score 27 129 90 134 124 119 122 116 108 92 70 108 178 135 84 100 118
Projected Season Average:

114.00

ADP:

9.10

ESN Rank:

6.00

ADP Undervalued:

3.10


Comments: Selwood is explosive, hard at it and now the Captain of the prestigious Geelong Cats. He is also slightly reckless, in danger of injuries especially through concussion, and is to be under the microscope for suspension at any given time for the way he attacks the footy. If Geelong were to drop away slightly in 2012, we believe Selwood wouldn't. We suspect when Geelong loose games, Selwood may be the lonesome Cat over 100 fantasy points. He is dropping slightly in ADP as we assume many worry he is less reliable than others.
70%
 

7   Dean Cox   R   West Coast Eagles   $0

2011 Games Played: 22
Season Average: 107.6
Overvalued
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Eagles vs BYE BYE
DT Score 142 118 127 79 121 106 91 125 114 145 93 91 87 94 119 137 155 57 96 97 53 120
Projected Season Average:

103.30

ADP:

10.10

ESN Rank:

19.00

ADP Overvalued:

-8.90


Comments: Stepped up to his circa 2008 season last year. He was an absolute monster with many relying on him as Captain. We think that 2011 was as good as it gets though. Lower your expectations to ensure you're not disappointed. Cox is still a top flight Ruck option, but be happy if it's 100+. He is going 1 round earlier than his ranking. Is he being overpaid?
75%
 

8   Sam Mitchell   M   Hawthorn Hawks   $0

2011 Games Played: 20
Season Average: 111.9
Undervalued
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hawks vs BYE BYE
DT Score 123 110 129 114 107 61 79 103 129 110 132 128 137 119 113 100 129 128 96 90
Projected Season Average:

110.40

ADP:

10.90

ESN Rank:

9.00

ADP Undervalued:

1.90


Comments: Feel confident with Mitchell. Consistent, reliable and captain material. He is the general of the midfield and carves out possessions every week . An incredible consistency rating and has been a very durable player over the years. The Hawks will be flying in 2012, and no doubt will snatch a top 4 spot without too many issues. Lets hope they are not all rested again before finals. Back end of the 1st round, safe reliable pick.
83%
 

9   Lance Franklin   F   Hawthorn Hawks   $0

2011 Games Played: 19
Season Average: 101.7
Overvalued
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hawks vs BYE BYE
DT Score 72 87 100 127 91 79 125 144 115 86 108 55 109 127 68 86 142 92 119
Projected Season Average:

104.30

ADP:

11.00

ESN Rank:

17.00

ADP Overvalued:

-6.00


Comments: Franklin's upside is irresistible. His talents are beyond anything a top line shutdown defender can stop in the AFL. His side is a top 4 proposition and the Hawks use the ball better by foot than any other team by far. He has spectacular delivery. So what's the problem? He is injury prone and he does get suspended, but they come with the package as it does with G Ablett's injuries. Heading into the season at 24, you might be disappointed he was not in your team from Round 1, when you watch his highlight reel on Sports Tonight. Slightly overvalued as you are paying for the brand name.
75%
 

10   Brendon Goddard   D/M   St Kilda Saints   $0

2011 Games Played: 22
Season Average: 95.7
Overvalued
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Saints vs BYE BYE
DT Score 96 72 88 113 78 73 54 122 41 111 119 56 130 105 109 115 152 69 82 104 122 94
Projected Season Average:

101.80

ADP:

11.20

ESN Rank:

25.00

ADP Overvalued:

-13.80


Comments: What happened last year? His Dream Team average fell off the planet by 18 points a game! He was a monumental flop. He did get back on track later in the season but the damage was already done. Having said that, this year with Gibbs as a midfielder, he is probably the best premium defender in the league and is at least a little cheaper to begin with than last year. Watters is expected to speed up the St Kilda game plan. This is surely going to help Goddard. Another Brand Name pick. If you are taking Goddard on the turn, you better make sure you have a reliable midfielder as Captain with your 2nd pick.
71%